Peering into 2010. Five Things to Watch:

November 4 2009 by Chris McGinnis

crystal-ball-wr.jpgPrognostication is a dangerous exercise, especially out here in the blogosphere where anything you publish can easily come back to haunt you. But as we enter the fourth quarter of a tough year, I'm going to stick my neck out and point to some positive things I see coming our way in the next year...

  • The rebound in business travel is going to be led by road warriors from small- and medium-sized companies. These "unmanaged" travelers are the folks who call their own shots when it comes to business travel and aren't bound by any corporate policies that may have hampered some of their "managed" traveler counterparts from getting out there and snagging new business this year. In a recent survey, nearly 80 percent of them said they'd be traveling as much or more this fall than last. I expect more of the same early next year. However, as the year progresses and the economy continues to warm up, those corporate policies will slowly melt away-- though it's going to take a while for things to return to "normal."

  • Loyalty programs will become richer and we'll see more promotions than ever as travel marketers use these powerful tools to snag business from competitors. How so? Well, the recession has turned travel loyalty on its head and road warriors are more likely to test new brands and seek less expensive alternatives. New members will get some nice signing bonuses in the process. Existing members can expect a rash of bonus promotions and redemption offers like we saw earlier this year.

  • The prices we pay for air, hotel, gasoline and cars will remain low through the winter, but then start to creep up as travel demand rises in late spring and into summer. One smart strategy for budget-conscious business travelers: if your schedule is flexible, book as many business trips as possible early in the year when prices are low. The release of a lot of pent up demand for travel could mean price spikes later in the year.

  • On international flights, we'll see a lot less business class and a lot more premium economy. In the "new normal," I just can't see many companies shelling out upwards of$10,000 for a roundtrip business class transoceanic ticket. However, those premium economy seats, which go for $1,000 to $2,000 will sell like hotcakes. We might even see some big improvements in international coach class--for example, Air New Zealand is considering a coach seat that folds out into a flat bed.

  • With the continued proliferation of in-flight Wi-Fi, we'll start seeing a lot more folks dodging airline rules and talking via VOIP programs from their airplane seats. I know there are those who don't like the thought of this, but the technology is there and people are going to use it.

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